Netflix on Risk

The Big Short & Narcos tienen algunos diálogos que incluyen un “risk assessment”:

Narcos es una propuesta original de la historia de Pablo Escobar porque incorpora elementos mas entretenidos como la CIA, la embajada gringa, los agentes de la DEA y los gobernantes locales.

El “Quica” (derecha) uno de los sicarios clave de PE hace esa pregunta antes de una operación riesgosa.

El interlocutor (el contador de PE) responde con una evaluación semi-cuantitativa.

The Big Short:  basada en libro de M. Lewis relata elementos de la crisis financiera del 2007.  Estos dos especuladores hablan sobre la posibilidad de que la burbuja inmobiliaria se reviente ya que los swaps que firmaron todavía no estaban descontando lo inevitable:

Supuestamente (con la ayuda de Brad Pitt) estos dos individuos lograron comprar derivados para ponerle precio a la burbuja inmobiliaria.

Como los bancos pensaban que era imposible que los inmuebles bajaran de precio, estimaban poco probable tal evento.

En una hoja de excel uno puede evaluar la el impacto, posibilidad y efectividad de una acción mitigadora a la hora de estructurar un negocio.  Yo lo hice con una exposición de Q5,000 la semana pasada.  Lo he visto en exposiciones de $750 millones.


Lo que importa es incorporar el riesgo en el precio para ofrecer una propuesta mas valiosa que los demás.  No es evitar las ganacias sino sacarle más a la incertidumbre.

Quick Review of Lego Life

This post is for the the LUG Guatemala (Lego User Group Guatemala) and it’s quick share of Lego in my life.

It was the Christmas eve between 1990 and 1992 when I was about six years old. As a matter of Christmas present I was expecting anything but a Lego set.  My dream obsession was a 4×4 with wireless remote control, “the Fast Track”, or maybe  another [hard to destroy] Tonka. Instead my parents surprised me with a box full of *broken* pieces of plastic that, once unwrapped, meant to be putted together by some boring individual. I felt frustrated and sadly mad. I was ready to throw a crying and yelling event but my older sister, Any, smartly approached me and advised at my ear: “look, there’s a plane, you only have to build it and then play forever with it”. It was the Lego Airport 6396.

Fast Forward
Around 20 Christmas and hundreds of hundreds of pieces later, I was less than ~two months married on December 2011. With the approval from my wife, I swapped some of the wedding gifts [Cemaco] in exchange for the below exhibited Lego Technic set; BTW I would like to apologize to the invitees for trading part of your wedding presents for toys; it was worth it, though:

Click the pictures for bigger look.





This nice Technic set took me the whole Christmas eve and quite a share of Christmas day; I would say between eight to twelve effective hours.  Among the opportunity costs of building this nice set it’s one the firsts marital arguings with my beloved wife; probably because I only took brakes to eat [and quickly] and blunt responses to any matter not being Lego.

Some interesting topics:

  • I have heard that the model has been discontinued, which should increase the value of that asset.
  • It came incomplete, had to ask for pieces to headquarters and took about one month to receive the pieces, free.
  • I have seen some absolutely incredible adjustments including a remote control  from Pro builders. Take a look:

If I wouldn’t have to work, I would devote a good chunk of my time to collect and build all Technic sets  which would cost me the same if I would purchase a nice pre-owned Range Rover ( my only favorite car).

Among other creations with Lego, this year I got creative by imitation:

I built about 6 different models mainly because shortage of repeated pieces. I like to think that it was maybe a 3-nights rush and then forgot about it. It was a challenge given the company of my little boy  ~1.5 years old, avoiding noise while he was asleep as well protecting the choking hazard when he was awake.

It keeps the car keys in the same place optimizing departure time.

Being a Christian Catholic I created my own cross crucifix. Look at my Lego Technic Cross. For Christians this symbol suppose to be a wake-up gadget; an spiritual wake-up that is.

I think it’s only me who understands what this yellow thing is; I try to explain that it resembles a modern art approach to the crucifixion :


Yellow as any warning sign. It should say “INRI” in the top panel. Avid reader can see there is no Christ: well they say he is alive so there’s no point to stumble in how was he murdered, instead better to think why did he allow that and what that means to what I am doing when I look at it. Pieces were part of a fork lifter 8045 ( gifted from my Fiance on her trip from Argentina (actually it was the non-solicited pay for doing her tax bill while she was out of the Country).

Taking Lego Beyond Plastic Pieces

Lego is a great analogy to life.

One’s life is composed of events and acts that resemble pieces to build. One can react madly rejecting the pieces or can manipulate the pieces to build a new thing. It’s a “challenge by choice”.  Although life doesn’t bring instructions like Lego sets, one can use some brains to structure as such.

Lego is quite a picture of the difference between homo sapiens [humans] to other animals, sensitive only animals. Rational animal like we humans, people, take pride of enjoying our sensitivity as well as controlling all our environment like a lego set requiring ~95 years to build. They say that people will never be like other animals, instead, we can only be worst or better. [Vatican Council II it’s a massive reference to this view of life].

Today’s reality of self historic identity and modern view of life is benefiting the Lego as a business; it’s demand is on the rise and the company has been audacious in taking advantage of the situation: take a snapshot at the financials for the 1st half of 2014 here.

I thank my family for driving my imagination towards Lego. My first and current family.

James Foley

Los terroristas en el estado isalmico solicitaron la liberación de esta doctora pakistaní detenida en Texas (fuente: Foreing Policy) a cambio de liberar a este peridista, James Foley. La politica de USA es no pagar rescates, así que los terroristas lo ejecutaron, no si antes avisarle por correo a la familia.

Yo me enteré de este asunto leyendo el blog del cardenal Dolan, arzobispo de Nueva York.

En lo personal lo que mas me interesó es que James Foley da un testimonio ‘escatologico’ en el rezar el Rosario. Muy probablemente, a parte de manterse mentalmente sano y ocupado contando los rezos con sus nudillos, sus peticiones eran que saliera vivo del secuestro. Pero parece que su testimonio tenía un alcance superior. Su vida me ha dejado una huella.


Modern Family

1) Ver video:


2) Gracias a mi amigo Juan por compartirme su presentación.

Las familias modernas viven evolucionando. Son grupos domésticos que viven bajo incertidumbre. Su única manera de trascender, o evitar la renuncia, es adaptandose. La familia no es. Se va haciendo.

Economic Trinity – ‘Mysterion’ of God

God’s revelation, the action of the Trinity, is so discrete that although he’s tendering his grace, one cannot easily perceive it, even to the point of invalidate his grace and therefore living  a practical atheism.


roud earth

15th Century Chart source:

economic trinity

Confession of a crude oil trader wanna-be

I’ve been checking the crude oil strategy and I notice that there is a bias towards finding the good things about the strategy and not in trying to improve. Like how well it manages the trend intraday, the percentage return with out leverage, and how nice is the system treating the structure of the last 3 sessions.


I tend to think: “wow, this is so nice, If would be trading with only technical analysis I don’t now how would I approach the market, I wouldn’t know what to tell to a possibly market opportunity, ufff systems are so nice”.


But something in my mind tells me that there is something I need to do a to improve. I think on the stop loss, I think on the process execution of the signal, in the fact that I am no trading it with real money…  ajhh still so distant to having a good approach towards risk management and even worse: I am located so far away of having the kind of money for testing such strategy with my own funds.


It’s kind of frustrating.  As far as I know I should sell a weak volatility and buy the wider ranges in the crude oil, according to the relative ATR to the closing price, on 22d.

I think I have faith on that some day I will tune up this strategy [and many more] and will be able to press the bid or ask using my opportunity costs represented in dollars.