Long AAPL ?
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Contra-Glotón
Eclesiástico 31,34 y 20
Come como hombre bien educado lo que tienes delante, no te muestres glotón, para no hacerte odioso. (…) A vientre moderado, sueño saludable, se levanta temprano y es dueño de sí. Insomnio, vómitos y cólicos le esperan al hombre insaciable.
La siguiente grafica es el indicador de comportamiento de comida. Es un indicador de cero a cien. Contiene cinco elementos de 20 puntos cada uno. Cada elemento corresponde a una comida del dia (2 refacciones y desayuno, almuerzo y cena). Si la hago bien, vale 20, si la hago mal, vale cero.
Mientras el indicador se sostenga por arriba de 90 mi cuerpo consume la energia almacenada en inventario. Cuando el indicador esta debajo de 80 mi cuerpo empieza a acumular energia y por lo tanto me pongo gordo aumentando probabilidad de infarto/diabetes/etc.
No estoy haciendo ejercicio para no alterar la demanda de energía, por el momento.
Del 15 de Octubre al 26 de noviembre: 9.6 libras. Para evitar un rebote debo mantener mi indicador arriba de 90.
Hoy en la mañana mi esposa no se acabó su desayuno, un omelette con frijoles volteados, se veían exquicitos. Me los ofreció 2 veces. Si los hubiera aceptado el indicador se hubiese caido a 88 porque hoy tambien planeo almozar en la calle con un amigo.
9na: 7mo dia
Madurar en las Virtudes
agobio: sofocación, angustia. Imponer a alguien actividad o esfuerzo excesivos, preocupar gravemente, causar gran sufrimiento. nclinar o encorvar la parte superior del cuerpo hacia la tierra.
Para que Dios me ayude a desarrollar las virtudes cristianas, en medio del trabajo, y a madurar espiritualmente, por el mode de realizarlo. Que procure ser paciente y comprensivo, tanto con los jees como con los colegas y subordinados; que sea sencillo y humilde, huyendo de la vanidad y del exhibicionismo; que lo haga todo, en una palabra, con pureza de corazon.
Another algorithm for crude
We are building an option price index based on a call price index and put price index. When dividing the CPI/PPI we get the OPI.
If the OPI falls, we take bidder’s side. If it rises, we go to the ask’s team.
Doing this since July 27th 2009 the equity curve would look like:
26% total return (crude has done 19% since) and the good news is that we got a z-value = 1.8 which suggest a little more effort in risk and money management and we might have tradable idea either in the USO or in the CL future.
pd. The OPI is based on the “oiwap” of all options available. It weights the last quote of each option against the total open interest. Oiwap = open interest weighted average price.
At bat = at Trade
I was thinking yesterday in my way to the gym that one should approach trading a certain market in the way a baseball hitter would approach his/her at-bat.
Would I be willing to face Mariano Rivera with overweight and relative ignorance of hitting mechanics?
Hitting skills are acquired at early ages. The grip of the bat, the transference of body weight from back to front when swinging, keeping the eyes on the ball, stay on the tip of your feet, hip movement, recognizing if the pitch is a fast ball or any thing else, and such and such are skills that the hitter begins to practice at about eight years old. Only the daily improvement in such skill will allow him/her to fight an at-bat against a regular pitcher.
MLB’s players take batting practice before each of the 162 games during regular season. They never stop seeking improvement their hitting skills. You see a Derek Jeter that goes on December to Florida for taking some swings, Robinson Cano, Yankees’ 2nd baseman, goes with his dad to his country and both train together on the hitting mechanics, Arod makes swings at his pool.
Also a hitter’s odds are always against him. Actually 33% probability of getting on base by making a swing is a very good average since most of the time a good hitter will fail on the main goal of his at-bat.
The important question is what mechanics do you think a wannabe-trader should learn to start as a trader? What kind of routines would you propose him? So far I have an answer but I’d like to see you speaking your mind.
Wishful thinking in the Euro
A couple of good friends, from my “eco” group, requested me to do all the paper work for opening a forex account. I suppose to design the strategy and show them what I got when I finished. They wanted to start with US$200. In part this is what made to stood still and do nothing.
If I had opened the account I would have gone long the euro back then on July 09. Buy at 1.4150 and today the mark to market is 1.4565, discretional trading. But I would look for a weekly positional strategy.
Although the average daily volatility would have squeeze the $200, I have this feeling of frustration for not getting long in that long term rally.
BUT
1) I don’t have the amount of $ for establishing a positional system [taking that volatility].
2) I am focusing on scalping the Oil. Either with USO or long in-the-money-options in the futures.
3) I really have no more space in my daily agenda for deepening in market study. I think this will be possible about the end of 2010.
4) For now, I rather build the sources that feed the trading account and do research in the mean time.
Peeking oil volatility
We are currently studding a strategy for CL. Basically it says that if the percentage change in the 22d relative ATR is lower than –3% then a short position must be executed at the close of the session and buy it back at the close of the next day. Also if the percentage is higher than +3% then long position must be established at the close of the session and to be sold at the end of the next day.
So far we got a z-value of 2.8 without stop-loss using our data mine of daily CL prices since 1986. So far this 209 the overall return would be about 60% with a draw down of 20% in march.
What’s the next step?
1) try another percentage changes like four, five and so on.
2) add an stop loss to the system itself for smoothing the draw downs.
3) paper trade it for at least one week.
Mkt Student 