Mkt Student

"To be a super-trader, you’ll need an edge to overcome the laws of probability and the uncertainty of the marketplace. That edge comes from information flow, the ability to correct your habits in terms of the market’s characteristics, and being able to take risks, cut losses, expand your information network, ferret out ideas, and take recommendations."

Trading to Win, Ari Kiev

 

As Brett says, trading is a performance activity, as a sport. Thereby we can also apply this principle for a life plan.

 

To be a super man, you’ll need a life plan to overcome failure and hopeless situations during life. That plan comes from self knowledge by capturing feelings as indicators instead of personality flaws, the ability to correct habits in terms of society characteristics, and being able to take compromises, know when and how to say no, expand your contacts network, open your mind without changing your core ideas and making of your fantasies business plans pending begin to build.

When analyzing markets I need a graphical way of resuming a defined context. That is why I have my market “constelator”.

 

I plot in the vertical axis the z-value of the last 67 daily percentage returns and in the horizontal axis I plot the YTD return in percentage.

 

In the commodity sectors you can see that back on june 19th:

 

Today we have wheat vibes and some think this is among the grains sector. But this is part of a secular move because the only ones that are not moving in the same direction are energies.

 

The concept behind these charts is as follow:

 

I think in the following weeks we’ll se energies goin to the zero zone (red) while the rest might take a tease at the up trend continuation territory.

There is also the possibility of energy pulling everybody to take a fall at the down trend continuation pattern, which would be according to the uncertainty from China.

Since stocks are in a range attitude possibly this all about getting in the red area and sell volatility to take a profit.

 

The third option likes me better. How about you?

 

Quotes on June 7th

KC: $133

BRRUSD: 1.8627

Quotes on June 28th

KC: $168

BRRUSD: 1.7828

 

Despite Brazilian real has appreciated the coffee has been quite aggressive upwards.

 

This would represent heavy losses in the trading system of currencySpot/futureCommodity: -US$7,350 on pain and true losses of about -$4k. A 50% draw down of accumulated profits so far in 2010…