23 feb:

Short term: Oil is more likely than SP500 to make a swing.
Long term: SP500 is more likely than Oil to make a swing.

position: +$8.46 (long USO)

Risk:5%

Timeframe: 1 week

 

Result:

Los $300 millones que la bolsa castigó en Oct 2015 equivalen a la pérdida no-operativa declarada en la deconsolidation de Comcel de parte de Millicom.  Aquí puede ver el reporte de ganancias de Millicom 4Q2015.

Lo tomo como un caso de estudio:

Hechos:

• Consecuencia contable: el no ejercer esta opcion hace que Millicom ya no tenga control absoluto sobre las subsidiaria de Guatemala y Hondras.  Por lo tanto debe reportar sus operaciones en estos dos paises como deconsolidated.  Parece que este “matrimonio” esta mas del lado del divorcio que de la renovacion de votos.

• La relación entre Mario Lopez de Guatemala y el senior management de Millicom no parece estar en buenos términos:

 

•  De acuerdo con el CFO, el mercado de Guatemala ya no ofrece mucho (─ maduro).

• ¿Por qué no ejerció el call Millicom?
• ¿Cuales seran los terminos de esos pagos impropios?
• ¿Hay oportunidad de hacer M&A en este caso? Seria un divesture de por lo menos $3b ($50 millones en honorarios!).

Gracias a mi amigo Jose Mauricio descubrí en 2015 las diferentes formas de preparar café de forma artesanal.

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Dos seres absolutamente distintos hacen una fusión inexplicable.

  

Support: $38 support.  Resistance:  $51. Bullish interest outgrows bearish bets.

Explanation:  Volume in calls was highly increased (77%), new positions grown 36% mainly at the $60/$61 strike level. The most traded strike was $51.  On the other hand, volume in puts was highly increased (63%) but new positions grown at only 4% mainly at the $35/$36 strike level.  The most traded strike was $38.

Note: The earlier was inferred by glancing puts and calls quotes from December 4th and 7th in the CLF16 contract.

 

publicado originalmente en Black Box.

No se si conducirse con un criterio moral tiene dividendos. Pero está comprobado que jugar sucio tiene perdidas garantizadas.

Hoy Millicom cayó 6% mientras el S&P 500 subió casi 2%.  Como se ve en pantallazo, el fundamental tiene que ver con Tigo Guate.

Segun mis calculos esto representa mas de $300 millones en la capitalizacion (y eso que no estamos agregando como le fue al bono corporativo que salió hace un par de años).

El CFA Institue, en su Codigo de Etica y Estandares de Conducta del CFA, dice:

Place the integrity of the investment profession and the interests of clients above their own personal interests.

Eso no lo enseñan en los posgrados.  Es algo que solo la calle maneja:

High ethical standards are critical to maintaining the public’s trust in financial markets and in the investment profession. Since their creation in the 1960s, the Code and Standards have promoted the integrity of CFA Institute members and served as a model for measuring the ethics of investment professionals globally, regardless of job function, cultural differences, or local laws and regulations. All CFA Institute members (including holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst® [CFA®] designation) and CFA candidates must abide by the Code and Standards and are encouraged to notify their employer of this responsibility. Violations may result in disciplinary sanctions by CFA Institute. Sanctions can include revocation of membership, revocation of candidacy in the CFA Program, and revocation of the right to use the CFA designation.

46. (16) Jesus, who reconciled all things in himself, restored marriage and the family to their original form (Mk 10:1-12). Marriage and the family have been redeemed by Christ (Eph 5:21-32), restored in the image of the Holy Trinity, the mystery from which every true love flows. The spousal covenant, originating in creation and revealed in the history of salvation, receives its full meaning in Christ and his Church. Through his Church, Christ bestows on marriage and the family the grace necessary to witness to the love of God and to live the life of communion. The Gospel of the Family spans the history of the world from the creation of man in the image and likeness of God (cf. Gn 1: 26-27) until it reaches, at the end of time, its fulfillment in the mystery of the Christ’s Covenant with the wedding of Lamb (cf. Rev19:9) (cf. Saint John Paul II, Catechesis on Human Love)

The Indissolubility of Marriage and the Joy of Sharing Life Together

54. (21) Mutual self-giving in the Sacrament of Marriage is grounded in the grace of Baptism, which establishes the foundational covenant of every person with Christ in the Church. In accepting each other and with Christ’s grace, the engaged couple promises a total self-giving, faithfulness and openness to new life. The married couple recognizes these elements as constitutive in marriage, gifts offered to them by God, taking seriously their mutual commitment, in God’s name and in the presence of the Church. So, in faith it is possible to assume the goods of marriage as commitments which are more sustainable through the help of the grace of the Sacrament. God consecrates the love of husband and wife and confirms its indissolubility, offering them assistance to live their faithfulness, mutual complementarity and openness to life. Therefore, the Church looks to married couples as the heart of the entire family, which, in turn, looks to Jesus.

55. Joy is an expression of the full realization of a person. To manifest the unique joy of the union of husband and wife and the formation of a new family calls for presenting the family as a place of personal and gratuitous relations, unlike those in society. The voluntary and reciprocal self-giving, the life which is born and the care of one member for the other, from the youngest to the oldest, are just some of the aspects which make the family unique in its beauty. It is important to develop the idea that marriage is a life-long choice which does not limit one’s existence, but instead makes it richer and fuller, even in times of difficulty.

Through this choice in life, the family builds society not as simply the numerical sum of the residents of a particular territory or as a group of citizens of a given State, but as a genuine experience of a people united in spirit and, in the case of the Church, the People of God.