I just found a way of checking when the sharks are in town.

 

UpTick-DownTick

Its the result of substracting the dwntick from the uptick. So the result is the number of transactions executed above (>0) the last trade or below (<0) the last execution.

 

TradeSize-snapshot

This is a reseverd word from TS and show an snap shot of how many contracts are being exchanged in each trade.

 

Vol/trades-Average

Equals the quotient of the volume of the so-far session divided by the trades so far since the open.

 

 

I just plotted them in my screen, next to the price candlestick bar chart, so I really have no a clear idea of what to do with these nice tools.

 

For example: We are in a 30 minute rally and we also see a strong positive uptick-downtick with some TradeSize-snapshot above the Vol/trades-Average that means we are seeing some big executions following the trend.

 

In the contrary if the market is bullish and tradeSize strongly > Vol/trades but Uptick-DownTick is constantly negative, then maybe some heavy scalpers are taking profits and we might accompain them to the exit door or wait for a next wave.

 

Check this out: Oil making a bottom at 68.59 in 7 minutes, tick positively strong and trade getting heavy. paper: buy at 68.87 and sell when the tick gets negative. its 1:16pm [Guate tieme]. Next paragraph says what happened. [i have delayed data].

 

And the result was…

 

now that think about the trade should have been from the short side because intraday tends to be mean reverting. But do not forget the initial hipothesys, heavy weights come out in the upper part of the crust.

 

the vol/trades is weakining as well as the tickpudown.

 

 

The putckdowtick is at 13… that’s enough. I think this is meareverting, not follower. Loss of 68.87-68.63= -$240.

 

Idea = short the oil when the minute upticdowntick is above [donchian channel ..?] and buy back when the indicator gets negative. Same say in the oppossite direction.

What about the risk mngmnt?

 

 

thni the mkt is over, bad time, the closing rush was over.

It supposed to work for wheat and sugar.

 

When the relative volume [volume divided by open interest] is 20% above the 22d moving average then get the contrarian position of today’s return at the opening of tomorrow.

Yesterday W rose a heavy 6%  so I had to short this one at the open. That would have bring me about $250 or 0.53% in the position and a little more counting the leverage of futures. Entry sell order “filled”  at 674’4 and bought back at 670’0.  Although there were lower executions at 658 which would be nice profit.

 

Problems:

1) I have no risk management weapon for this edge so far.

2) I will have to do the same thing that I am doing with oil: check in 30min timeframe the entire week and find the key zones.

It is 8.45 gt time [10.45ET] I log on to my MF Global Account to get a quote of the opening in the wheat market where I have a sell signal with a nice profit probability.

 

Since I was wiped out in the las 12 months, the balance in the account is $2.9. But in the moment I get my eye on the Purchasing Power field It syas $7950 in red! I owe to my broker that amount of dollars.

 

Then I realized that I had SELL GTC limit order for closing my long call position on the CLM9 strike of $90.00. But since that long call expired weeks ago, the market standed still.

 

Now that I think about it, That GTC order shold have expried too, since I am asking to sell something that no longer exists. Maybe that is why I never got a margin call directly by phone or at the email.

 

At least is shows me that the system does work indeed.

 

Be careful when using GTC orders since those are, obviously, until are canceled.

Q:  Can you discuss the concept of drawdowns a bit? Novice traders seem to think experienced traders become proficient to the point that they are right much more than not and thus experience very small drawdowns. But talking to experienced traders this does not seem to be the case.

A:  In my view, the biggest difference between a successful trader and one who is not is how they manage their mistakes. Note, I am of the opinion that those who trade well don’t make fewer mistakes but they simply have learned how to handle them when they occur. This opinion is based on years of experience but also more recently working closely one-on-one with other traders. The fastest way I’ve learned to be of help to others is to show them how to recognize, quickly admit, and then take aggressive action when a mistake has been made. Losers tend to make bigger mistakes out of small ones. They let their egos get in the way and double-down in losing trades and make matters worse when a mistake is made.

Ultimately, the best you can do in this business is try to be “more right than wrong,” especially at key turning points and be quick to repair and take remedial action when you are wrong as well as managing your risk through proper trading size, stop losses, and simple diversification.

From now on, I will write in English only.

 

Today I was watching closely GC, CL, DA, SP and the Baltic.

 

Yesterday I recognized a double top on the 30min chart of the SP500 and so far, today, the pattern has been completed. I don’t care the economic history about it. What I care is the following of today:

 

Softs traded higher with stronger dollar, in fact DX was the best commodity on my 40 products list. That being said, the next surprise was on energies which were the wrost of the session with NG 10% down, I guess some inventory data crushed the rally-buyers (what a crazy and wild mkt).

Also bond prices where sharply lower today and the SP500 lower too. It’s the first time I catch such behavior: 1) We are at a delta point where every thing is about to crack back or 2) I am just being extremely naive.

 

BALTIC DRY index above 2000 which is drawing a possible fundamental BS like this “bond prices up and commodities up on inflation expectations and agressive bond buying by the feds, stock mkt factoring nflation from commodities alongside capital fund suplies for re-starting the economy”.

That would be too predective and so of a fantasy for a hedger.

 

I thought about shorting KC early in the morning since yesterday and would have had a very unconfortable loss because no strategy was mentally processed more than a graphical pattern.

 

Have to re-schedule all the compromises written before this entry.

 

Pd

Happy about finding some nice things on CL and GC for positional speculation. More study is needed.

if spec keeps teaching, and finds a way of earning $1/2k monthly, in 50 months he could have his $25k for trading, so he begins at 30 yrsld.

Teaching mkts in exchange of source for money raising.

In the mean time, could follow a true market student agenda testing trading hypothesis and developing wiser mkt skills just in paper. In a daily basis.

 

Unless a fundamental shift come about, this should be executed with true loyalty.

 

This means that a car possibility is null and so for any kind of expensive pleasures like traveling.

 

I have 5 years for building my capital size, develop profitable strategies, getting a female partner so a new era should start 60 months forward beginning in the 3q of 2009. Kerigmatic activities should then be replaced by a family constitution.

 

The tools necessary for this is keeping a mental focus trough meditation and disciplined daily praying for improving attention.

240 weeks forward from 01V9 [kerygma, mkts, baseball] should switch to [family,mkts,baseball].

mkts>15min vwap

 

G:= 8/11

E, S= 2/3

M=1/5

 

Si los metals suelen ser los lideres, entonces parec que vamos al sur.

Metals[a]Softs[a]energies[grains]

aver que hace porque usualmente sorprende.

 

test

Este es un mini sistema que diseñé para graficar posiciones de opciones automaticamente.

 

b 1 c CLM9 30 @ 24.7 [delta=2.03]

b 1 p CLM9 65 @ 11.3 [delta=7.44]

s 1 c CLM9 25 @ 29.7 [delta=4.8]

s 1 p CLM9 70 @ 15.8 [delta=1.84]

 

falta completar los ajustes en los posts de abajo.

 

Este trade pediría como $80k en margins para obtener una ganancia de $9k una semana antes que termine mayo, poniendo el trade el 4 mayo, o sea 20 dias.

Postearé el resultado cuando expiren estas opciones.

30min candlestick chart.

 

8.01am: ¿cubrimos el gap abierto el opening del lunes y cerramos en un weekly doji?  ¿que habra pasado historicamente cuando se ve un pattern parecido?